Overview

This article explains how Sisra Basic Projections (SBP), also referred to as Projected Grades, are calculated, comparing a student’s expected grade with their current attainment.

Calculations

The five steps below show how Sisra Analytics calculates a pupil's SBP in reports:

• To determine the student's Expected Grade, Sisra Analytics matches the student's Baseline Grade for the report term. For example, a student with a baseline of Grade 7 corresponds to an Expected Grade of 5= in all reports for Year 10 Term 1:

  

• Sisra Analytics compares the Expected Grade with the student's Current Attainment Grade for the report's data set or assessment collection.

  1. Where the Expected Grade is the same as the Current Attainment Grade, the KS4 Exams Grade from that row is used as the Projected Grade. For example, if the Current Attainment Grade is 5 the Projected Grade will be set to 7.
  2. Where the Expected Grade differs from their Current Attainment Grade, continue to Step 3.

• If the student’s Current Attainment Grade is not the same as their expected grade:

  1. Where the grade appears in one other pathway for that term, Sisra Analytics uses the KS4 Exams Grade from that row. For example, if the Current Attainment Grade is 4 (Below) then the Projected Grade will be set to 5:
     
  2. Where the Current Attainment Grade is available for more than one pathway, continue to Step 4.

• If the student’s Current Attainment Grade is not the same as their Expected Grade and doesn't appear in only one pathway:

  1. Where the student’s Current Attainment Grade appears in multiple pathways, Sisra Analytics selects the KS4 Exams Grade from the row closest to the original baseline. For example, if the Current Attainment Grade is 6+ (Above track) closest to Baseline 7 then the Projected Grade will be set to 8:
     
  2. Where the Current Attainment Grade does not appear in any pathway, continue to Step 5.

• If the student's Current Attainment Grade doesn't match any pathways, Sisra Analytics identifies the two nearest pathways. The KS4 Exams Grade from the lower of the two is used to determine the Projected Grade. For example, if the Current Attainment Grade is 4+ (Between 4= and 5=) 4= is used to determine that the Projected Grade will be set to 5:

  

Updated 11 September 2025 09:59