Sisra Analytics: KS3/4 - How is Progress 8 calculated?

Overview

This article explains what the DfE's Progress 8 measure is and details how it is calculated. This can help with troubleshooting figures or for those interested in the details behind the measure calculations.

  • "As primary tests and assessments were cancelled in academic years 2019/20 and 2020/21 due to COVID-19 disruption, there will be no KS2 prior attainment data available to use to calculate Progress 8 when the relevant cohorts reach the end of KS4 in academic years 2024/25 and 2025/26.

    Having explored alternative options for producing a progress measure in the affected years, we have concluded that there will be no replacement to Progress 8 for 2024/25 and 2025/26"

    Department for Education Secondary Accountability Measures guidance

    To calculate Progress 8 figures for the 24/25 (Current Year 11) and 25/26 (Current Year 10) cohorts within Sisra Analytics, you need to upload an alternate KS2 Baseline to use in place of these cohorts' Scaled Scores. For further information, see Sisra Analytics: How can I set up cohorts with no KS2 data?

Definition

Progress 8 compares a student’s Attainment 8 score (explained here) with their Estimated Attainment 8 score. The Estimated Attainment 8 score is based on their Key Stage 2 (KS2) prior attainment, and how pupils within the same KS 2 prior attainment group have performed nationally.

"A pupil's Progress 8 score is defined as their Attainment 8 score, minus their Estimated Attainment 8 score"

Department for Education Secondary Accountability Measures guidance

This figure is then divided by 10 to calculate the average progress per grade.

As the measure uses KS2 data, students with no valid English and Maths KS2 data (those without a KS2 APS above 0) will not have an Estimated Attainment 8 score and are excluded from the Progress 8 measure and the Average Total Estimated Attainment 8 figure.

Calculation videos

Calculations

  • Select an accordion to view the Progress 8 calculation and its associated examples:

    • The calculation for Overall Progress 8 at a pupil level is:

      Overall Progress 8 = (Attainment 8 – Estimated Attainment 8) ÷ 10

    In addition to the Overall Progress 8 score, Sisra Analytics also calculates Progress 8 scores for each of the different elements: English, Maths, EBacc, and Open:

    • The calculation for English Progress 8 at a pupil level is:

      English Progress 8 = (English Score - English Estimate) ÷ 2*
      * This is divided by 2 as English element can be double weighted if students take both English Language and English Literature.

    • The calculation for Maths Progress 8 at a pupil level is:

      Maths Progress 8 = (Maths Score - Maths Estimate) ÷ 2
      * This is divided by 2 as the Maths element is double-weighted.

    • The calculation for EBacc Progress 8 at a pupil level is:

      EBacc Progress 8 = (EBacc Score – EBacc Estimate) ÷ 3
      * This is divided by 3 as there are 3 slots in the EBacc/Open basket (even if all 3 slots aren’t filled).

    • The calculation for Open Progress 8 at a pupil level is:

      Open Progress 8 = (Open Score – Open Estimate) ÷ 3
      * When calculating an Average Attainment grade across the 8 subjects, rather than using 8, you divide by 10 (as Maths and English have a double weighting). If a pupil hasn't filled all 8 slots, you still divide by 10.

  • The DfE updated Progress 8 calculations from 2018 onwards to limit the impact of students with an extremely negative Progress 8 score on the overall School Progress 8 figure. All student Progress 8 scores within Sisra Analytics are adjusted based on the minimum thresholds provided by the DfE. 

    The table below shows the Minimum scores in 2024 used to make the adjustments:

    KS2 prior attainment group KS2 average scaled score range Minimum threshold for adjusted Progress 8
    1 to 16 59 to 102 N/A
    17 102.5 to 103 -4.087
    18 103.5 to 104 -4.161
    19 104.5 to 105 -4.174
    20 105.5 to 106 -4.242
    21 106.5 to 107 -4.262
    22 107.5 to 108 -4.268
    23 108.5 to 109 -4.229
    24 109.5 to 110 -4.253
    25 110.5 to 111 -4.274
    26 111.5 to 112 -4.190
    27 112.5 to 113 -4.112
    28 113.5 to 114 -3.960
    29 114.5 to 115 -3.797
    30 115.5 to 116 -3.686
    31 116.5 to 117 -3.539
    32 117.5 to 118 -3.448
    33 118.5 to 119 -3.119
    34 119.5 to 120 -2.748

    Using the 2024 DfE A8 Estimates, for example, if a student had a KS2 prior attainment of 103.5, the lowest possible Progress 8 score accepted for them would be -4.161. If their Progress 8 score was calculated below this, it will be adjusted by replacing this with the minimum Progress 8 score for their prior attainment group.

    In Sisra Analytics, an Adj icon (() indicates a student’s Progress 8 score has been adjusted. Select Adj () to view the student’s unadjusted Progress 8 score.

  • School Progress 8 can be found by calculating the mean average of a school's eligible students' Progress 8 scores:

    School Progress 8 Score = Sum of students' Progress 8 Scores ÷ Progress 8 Coverage*

    * Progress 8 Coverage is the count of students included in Progress 8 (those on roll with valid KS2 data in that cohort).

  • A 95% confidence interval is also calculated, defining the range of values within which we are statistically confident that the true value of the Progress 8 score for the school lies. This is calculated for the school’s Overall Progress 8 figure, and also each individual Progress 8 element. The confidence interval is given by the formula below:

    Confidence Interval = 1.96 x (National Standard Deviation*) ÷ (√Cohort Size)

    * The Standard Deviation of all Progress 8 and Progress 8 Element scores nationally is provided by the DfE each year.

    The upper/lower confidence limits of the confidence interval are given by the formula:

    [LowCIS, UppCIS] = [P8S - CIS, P8S + CIS]

    where:

    LowCIS

    Lower Confidence Limit for the school's total Progress 8 score. 

    Lower Confidence Limit = School Progress 8 Score – Confidence Interval
    UppCIS

    Upper Confidence Limit for the school's total Progress 8 score. 

    Upper Confidence Limit = School Progress 8 Score + Confidence Interval
    P8S School's Progress 8 Score.
    CIS The size of the confidence interval for the School's Total Progress 8 Score.

    National Standard Deviations

    These standard deviations are based on the Progress 8 scores of all eligible pupils at mainstream schools and are used within Confidence Interval calculations:

Progress 8 - Worked Example

Expand each step to walk through the worked example:

  • To determine a student's Attainment 8, add up the scores from each of their baskets. 

    The below student, Student A, achieved the following results in 2024:

    Basket 1 (Eng/Mat) Basket 2 (EBacc) Basket 3 (Open)
    GCSE Mathematics (3 x 2 = 6) GCSE History (4) BTEC First Award Hospitality (5.5)
    GCSE English Language (4) - BTEC First Award Sport (4)
      - Cambridge National Cert Business & Enterprise (4)
    Sum Eng + Mat =
    6 + 4 = 10     		Sum EBacc =
    4     		Sum Open =
    5.5 + 4 + 4 = 13.5

    Student A's Attainment 8 score is calculated as:

    Attainment 8 = (10) + (4) + (13.5) = 27.5

    For further information, see

  • To determine a student's Estimated Attainment 8, firstly calculate their KS2 Prior Attainment. 

    This is calculated from the average of the core KS2 subjects for that reporting year. For example, for Y11 21/22 and later, this would be the average of the students' English Reading and Maths KS2 Scaled Scores.

    Using Student A’s KS2 English Reading Scaled Score of 90 and Maths Scaled Score of 85 their average KS2 Prior Attainment is calculated as follows:

    KS2 Prior Attainment = (90 + 85) ÷ 2 = 87.5

  • To determine a student's Estimated Attainment 8 score, you can compare the student's average KS2 Prior Attainment with the list of estimates selected by your Sisra Administrator when publishing.

    Using Student A’s Prior Attainment, we can cross reference this with the DfE’s 2024 validated Attainment 8 Estimates to find their estimates for each element in the row for their KS2 Prior Attainment Group:

    KS2 Prior Attainment Group K2 Average Scaled Score Range Attainment 8 Average English Average Maths Average EBacc Average Open Average
    1 59 to 82 15.96 3.86 2.39 4.37 5.35
    2 82.5 to 86 16.64 4.18 2.50 4.37 5.59
    3 86.5 to 87.5 19.02 4.76 3.07 5.00 6.19
    4 88 to 89 20.79 5.15 3.45 5.49 6.71
    5 89.5 to 90.5 22.01 5.37 3.75 5.86 7.03

    For example, Student A is placed in Prior Attainment Group 3, and their estimates are 19.02 for the Attainment 8 overall, 4.76 for English etc.

    Open Sisra Analytics: KS3/4 - Historical Attainment 8 Estimates to download a list of all historical Attainment 8 Estimates

  • Using Student A’s figures from above, their Overall Progress 8 score is:

    Progress 8 = (27.5 - 19.02) ÷ 10 = 0.848 (3 dp)

    Student A has achieved roughly just under one grade better per subject than other pupils with the same prior attainment nationally.

  • Similarly, Student A’s individual Progress 8 element scores are:

    English Progress 8 = (4 - 4.76) ÷ 2 = -0.380 (3 dp)

    Maths Progress 8 = (6 - 3.07) ÷ 2 = 1.465 (3 dp)

    EBacc Progress 8 = (4 - 5) ÷ 2 = 0.333 (3 dp)

    Open Progress 8 = (13.5 -6.19) ÷ 2 = 2.437 (3 dp)

  • Student A is one of 156 students included in Progress 8 at this school, as they have a KS2 APS above 0. The School's Progress 8 score is:

    School Progress 8 = 42.97 ÷ 156 = 0.275 (3 dp)

  • Using the 2024 National Standard Deviation (see below) and cohort size, the Schools Progress 8 Confidence Interval is:

    School's P8 Confidence Interval = 1.96 x (1.415869 ÷ √156) = 0.22 (2dp)

    Using the School Progress 8 score (from above), the Progress 8 Confidence Limits are:

    School Progress 8 = 42.97 ÷ 156 = 0.275 (3 dp)

    School’s Lower Confidence Limit = 0.275 – 0.22 = 0.055 (3dp)

    School’s Upper Confidence Limit = 0.275 + 0.22 = 0.495 (3dp)

  • Confidence Intervals can be calculated for individual Progress 8 elements in a similar way. For example, if within the school the English Progress 8 score was -0.561, the School's English Progress 8 Confidence Interval is:

    School’s English P8 Confidence Interval = 1.96 x (1.613526 ÷ √156) = 0.25 (2dp)

    Using the School Progress 8 score above, the School's English Progress 8 Confidence Limits are:

    School’s English Lower Confidence Limit = -0.561 – 0.25 = -0.811 (3dp)
     

    School’s English Upper Confidence Limit = -0.561 + 0.25 = -0.311 (3dp)

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