Sisra Analytics: KS5 - How is L3 Value Added (VA) calculated?

Overview

This article explains how to calculate Level 3 Value Added (VA) for students, qualifications, classes and cohorts, along with worked examples.

The calculations in this article are based on official DfE guidance: DfE’s 16 to 18 Accountability Measures: Technical Guide (page 21 onwards).

Before Level 3 Value Added (VA) can be calculated for overall performance cohorts, each student’s Value Added Score must be calculated for each qualification they’re taking, where eligible.

Calculations (including examples)

To calculate an individual student’s VA Score, calculate their Expected Outcome Attainment first. This is calculated using a student’s Relevant KS4 Prior Attainment to determine which Average Prior and, therefore, Expected Outcome band they are placed in. This is then used to calculate a student’s Expected Outcome Attainment value (E):

$$ \mathsf{\mathbf{E} = o_1 + (o_2 - o_1) \times \frac{KS4 - P_1}{P_2 - P_1}} $$

Where:

O₁ Lower Outcome band

O₂ Upper Outcome band

KS4 KS4 Core Baseline data used for the qualification

P₁ Lower Average Prior band

P₂ Higher Average Prior band

The following prior attainment should be used to place students into the appropriate Average Prior Band, provided by the DfE:
- GCE A Level and Academic qualifications: KS4 GCSE Average Point Score
- Vocational qualifications: KS4 Overall Average Point Score
A student’s KS4 Prior Attainment is determined by the KS4 Core Baselines imported by the Sisra administrator at your school.
- The table below lists the grades Student A achieved in KS4:
  
  Qualification Grade Points
  
  BTEC Dance M 5.5
  
  GCSE English Language 7 7
  
  GCSE English Literature 6 6
  
  AS French B 8.88
  
  GCSE History 5 5
  
  GCSE Maths 6 6
  
  GCSE Combined Science 54 4.5^*
  
  _{* GCSE Combined Science is treated as 1 entry with the points averaged.}
  
  The points behind each grade are averaged to produce two KS4 prior attainments, one based on GCSE/AS Levels only and another using all the student’s grades:
  
  GCSE APS 6.23
  
  Overall APS 6.1257
  
  The student is then placed in an Average Prior band for each qualification they are taking, and the equivalent Expected Outcome band is calculated from this. For example, for A Level History, Student A’s KS4 GCSE APS (6.23) would place them between Average Prior Band 11 and 12 (in 2019):
  
  As the same expected outcome bands are used, this would place them between Expected Outcome Band 11 and 12:
  
  Average Prior and Expected Outcome bands can be found on the National lines lookup sheet within the DfE’s L3VA Ready Reckoner.
  
  Therefore, the student's VA Expectation would be calculated as follows using the lower and upper boundaries of these bands (based on 2019 figures):
  
  VA Expectation = 36.795492‬ or 36.795 (3 dp)
  
  VA Expectation is shown throughout the reports and is displayed to three decimal places.
Calculate a Value Added Points Score for each of the student’s qualifications by subtracting their VA Expectation in that qualification from the KS5 grade points they have achieved:

Value Added Points Score = Grade points for KS5 qualification - VA Expectation

The points used for the KS5 qualification are not standardised to the equivalent of 1 entry.
- Where Student A has achieved a Grade B (40 points) in A Level History, their VA Point Score for History would be calculated as follows:
  
  Value Added Points Score = 40 - 36.795 = 3.205
The students VA point score is then used to calculate their final Value Added Score for that particular qualification. This is done by converting the VA points scores into a grade by dividing the value by 10 and by the size of the qualification, as per the calculation below:

$$ \mathsf{{Value\ Added\ Score} = \frac{\left(\frac{{VA\ Points\ Score}}{10}\right)}{{Size\ of\ Qualification}}} $$
- For Student A, using their VA Points Score above, this would then calculate their A Level History Value Added Score as follows:
  
  $$ \mathsf{{Student\ A's\ Value\ Added\ Score} = \frac{\left(\frac{{3.205}}{10}\right)}{{1}}} = 0.32\ (2 dp)$$
  
  In the example above, Student A is performing a third of a grade better in History than others with the same expected outcome (a full grade is 1).
  
  Repeat the process for each qualification a student has a grade for, ready for use when calculating the school Value Added Scores for each performance cohort, qualification or class (where eligible).
  
  In Sisra Analytics, each student’s Value Added Score for a qualification is displayed to two decimal points in the VA column in the Grade Analysis report > Grade List, where a qualification is selected.
  
  At a student level, the Value Added figures displayed in Sisra Analytics will not necessarily match the DfE Ready Reckoner. This is because Sisra Analytics displays the VA Score in terms of grades, whereas the ready reckoner shows this in terms of Points. Using Student A above, the DfE Ready Reckoner displays a figure of 3.21 (2dp).

Sisra Analytics provides each student’s Average Value Added Score, for each performance cohort or overall. This is calculated in two steps by firstly calculating the qualifications Weighted VA Score:

Weighted VA Score = VA Score x Qualification Size

then the Student’s Average VA is calculated:

Student Average VA = Sum of Weighted VA Scores ÷ Sum of Sizes

Student A has taken five qualifications - three A Levels, one Academic, and one Applied Generalas shown below with their weighted VA Score, calculated using their VA Score and the qualification’s size. The Size and Weighted VA Scores are then totalled:

Step 1 - Calculate the Weighted VA Score, the Sum of Weighted VA Scores and the Sum of Sizes

Qualification Performance Cohort VA Score Size Weighted VA Score

Accounting A2 A Level 1.61 1 1.61 x 1 = 1.61

BTEC Business (Diploma) Applied General -0.05 1.5 -0.05 x 1.5 = -0.075

Extended Project Academic 0.48 0.3 0.48 x 0.3 = 0.144

Geography A2 A Level 1.29 1 1.29 x 1 = 1.29

History A2 A Level 0.32 1 0.32 x 1 = 0.32

Total 4.8 3.289

Step 2 - Calculate the Student’s Average VA:

Student A’s Average Value Added Score = 3.289 ÷ 4.8 = 0.69 (displayed to 2dp in Sisra Analytics)

In Sisra Analytics, each student’s Value Added Scores for their qualifications can be found in the VA column in the Value Added Report > Value Added View > Grouped by Students.

U Grades at A Level

The DfE cites:

In the level 3 value added measure, if a student passes an AS level but fails the A level for the same subject, the A level will be included in the value added calculation and the AS level will not

Value Added Scores will therefore, be calculated individually for each grade / qualification, but only the score for the grade worth more entries will be used to calculate headline Value Added.

Individual Qualification and Class Value Added Scores are calculated from the average of the Value Added Scores of all students who were included in the Value Added Score calculations for that qualification or class, as per the calculations below:

Qualification Value Added Score = Total Value Added Scores for Qualification ÷ Number of Students in Qualification

Class Value Added Score = Total Value Added Scores for Class ÷ Number of Students in Class
- There are 10 students who have taken A Level History. Their individual Value Added Scores are as follows:
  
  Student Value Added Score
  
  Student 1 0.32
  
  Student 2 -0.61
  
  ... ...
  
  Student 10 1.35
  
  Total (sum of all value added scores) 0.62 (2 dp)
  
  The Value Added Score for History is calculated as follows:
  
  Value Added Score for History = 0.62 ÷ 10 = 0.06 (2 dp - as shown in Sisra Analytics)
  
  History is performing almost as expected, based on students with the same expected outcome.
  
  In Sisra Analytics, each qualification’s Value Added Score can be found in the VA column in the Value Added Report > Value Added View > Grouped by Qualifications..
As per DfE guidance, Value Added Scores are calculated for individual Performance Cohorts, including:
- A Level.
- Academic (A Level and Academic qualifications).
- Applied General.
Overall Value Added is also included within Sisra Analytics, although not officially reported on by the DfE. This is calculated using the same methodology as the official performance cohorts explained below, with the exception that all Value Added eligible qualifications are included in this single, overall school level Cohort Value Added.

Value Added Scores for Performance Cohorts are calculated in three steps:
- The Weighted Value Added Points Score is calculated for each qualification, using the formula below:
  
  Weighted Value Added Points Score (for one qualification) = Qualification's Value Added Point Score x Weighting x Number of Eligible Value Added Scores
  
  Most qualifications carry a weighting of 1. However, General Studies and Pre-U Certificate in Global Perspectives are exceptions to this, with a weighting of 0.5 as per the DfE’s Ready Reckoner (at the time of writing).
  - School A offers 3 A Level qualifications and 1 Academic qualification. The table below lists each of these qualifications, their Value Added Score, weighting, and the number of Eligible Value Added Scores in each. These are used to produce the Weighted Value Added Points Score for each qualification:
- Calculate the total weighted qualification size in that performance cohort, using the following formula:
  
  Weighted Qualification Size = Number of Eligible Value Added Scores x Weighting
  - In School A, the Weighted Qualification Size is calculated by multiplying the Number of Eligible Value Added Scores (Num of Eligible VA Scores) by the qualifications Weighting.
- Calculate the Performance Cohorts Value Added Score by dividing the Sum of the Weighted Value Added Point Scores for all Qualifications in the Performance Cohort by the Sum of the Weighted Qualification Sizes for all Qualifications in the Performance Cohort:
  
  Performance Cohorts Value Added Score =
  Weighted Value Added Point Scores for all Qualifications in the Performance Cohort ÷
  Sum of the Weighted Qualification Sizes for all Qualifications in the Performance Cohort
  - For School A calculate the Value Added figure for their A Level Performance Cohort and Academic Cohort by totalled the Weighted Value Added Points Score and Weighted Qualification Size for all qualifications included in the respective performance cohort:
    - A Level Cohort
      
      _{The Extended Project Qualification wouldn’t be included in the school's A Level Value Added calculation, as this only counts in the Academic performance cohort.}
      
      The Total Weighted Value Added Points Score for the A Level Performance Cohort is divided by the Total Weighted Qualification Size:
      
      School A's A Level Performance Cohorts Value Added Score = 3.42 ÷ 35 = 0.10 (2dp, as displayed in Sisra Analytics)
    - Academic Cohort
      
      _{Both A Level and Academic qualifications are included in Academic Value Added calculations, as per DfE guidance.}
      
      The Total Weighted Value Added Points Score for the Academic Performance Cohort is divided by the Total Weighted Qualification Size:
      
      School A's Academic Performance Cohorts Value Added Score = 9.888 ÷ 39.2 = 0.24 (2dp, as displayed in Sisra Analytics)
    In School A, the A Level cohort is performing just higher than expected, whilst the Academic cohort is performing a quarter of a grade higher than expected.
    
    Each Performance Cohort’s Value Added Score is found in the specific Performance Cohort Section of your Headlines report in Sisra Analytics.
Confidence Limits are calculated using Confidence Intervals produced by the DfE, to take into account the uncertainty associated with Value Added figures, which relates to those influences on student performance that are outside of a school’s control. Within Sisra Analytics these can be found at Qualification, Class, Faculty, Group, and Performance Cohort levels.

Confidence Intervals for Qualifications and Classes are calculated first, using the Value Added Score, the National Variance of Error provided by the DfE, and the Number of Grades included, as follows:

Class Value Added Confidence Interval $= \text{VA Score} + \left( 1.96 \sqrt{\frac{\sigma^2}{n}} \right)$

Where:

${\sigma^2}$ National Variance of Error.

${n}$ Number of Grades

The National Variances of Error for each qualification can be found in the DfE’s Ready Reckoner on the Variance lookup sheet, in the SD_SUQU column.
- The confidence intervals for A Level History are calculated using:
  
  Value Added Score 0.06
  
  National Variance of Error 0.918551814386108
  
  Number of Grades for the qualification 11 (in this example, for History)
  
  When the values are substituted into the formula, the calculation is as follows:
  
  A Level History Value Added Confidence Interval $= 0.6 \stackrel{+}{-} \left({1.96} \sqrt{\frac{0.918551814386108^2}{11}} \right) = 0.6 \stackrel{+}{-} 0.543$
  
  This gives the following :
  
  Upper Confidence Limit of 0.06 + 0.543 = 0.603
  
  Lower Confidence Limit of 0.06 - 0.543 = 0.483
  
  Therefore, we can be statistically confident that the Value Added Score for A Level History lies between these two figures.
  
  Faculty and Group Confidence Limits are based on the Average Value Added Score for all Qualifications / Filter values within the Faculty / Group.
  
  These confidence limits can be found when grouping the Value Added report by Qualifications, Classes, Faculties, or Groups.

Confidence intervals for individual performance categories (A Level, A Level and Other Academic, or Applied General) are calculated using the Value Added Scores for each individual qualification, the size of all qualifications and the standard deviation provided by the DfE. This is calculated via the following steps:

Find the standard deviation for each qualification from the DfE’s Ready Reckoner and then find the square root of the standard deviation squared, divided by the number of eligible Value Added Scores.

Calculate the overall error for each qualification by multiplying the standard deviation for each qualification from Step 1 by the Number of Eligible Value Added Scores and dividing by the Total Qualification Type Value Added Scores, all squared. The total for each qualification type is then calculated by adding the scores for each qualification of that type.

	Subjects included (Number of Eligible Value Added Scores)	Total Qualification Type Value Added Scores
A Level Qualifications	Accounting A2 (10), Geography A2 and History A2	10 + 14 + 11 = 35
Academic Qualifications	Extended Project	14

The calculations are as follows:

_{AS and A Levels are counted as separate qualification types, so if your school has both, you must calculate these separately.}

Take the total value for each Qualification Type from Step 2 and find the square root of each:

A Level $\sqrt{0.027822} = 0.166799$

Academic $\sqrt{0.027822}= 0.331275$
For each Qualification Type multiply the value from Step 3 by the Total Number of Eligible Value Added Scores for the Qualification Type and size and divide by the Total Number of Entries, all squared. Then add these together:
The Confidence Interval is calculated by multiplying the Critical Value (1.96) by the square root of the value calculated in Step 4:

Confidence Interval $1.96 * \sqrt{0.023439} = 0.300074$ (0.3 to 2dp)
The Upper and Lower Confidence Limits are then calculated by adding or subtracting the Confidence Interval from the Value Added Score:

Upper Confidence Limit = 0.25 + 0.3 = 0.55

Lower Confidence Limit = 0.25 - 0.3 = -0.05

Sisra Analytics and the Ready Reckoner use the unrounded Value Added figure in their calculations, which are displayed to 2 decimal places.

These intervals can be found on the Headlines report.

Related information

Sisra Analytics: What is Value Added?
For further information about the Level 3 Value Added (VA) measure, see page 21 onwards of the DfE's 16 to 18 accountability measures: technical guidance.
DfE 16-18 Ready Reckoner: 2024 final data.

Updated 16 January 2026 12:31

O₁	Lower Outcome band
O₂	Upper Outcome band
KS4	KS4 Core Baseline data used for the qualification
P₁	Lower Average Prior band
P₂	Higher Average Prior band

Qualification	Grade	Points
BTEC Dance	M	5.5
GCSE English Language	7	7
GCSE English Literature	6	6
AS French	B	8.88
GCSE History	5	5
GCSE Maths	6	6
GCSE Combined Science	54	4.5^*

Qualification	Performance Cohort	VA Score	Size	Weighted VA Score
Accounting A2	A Level	1.61	1	1.61 x 1 = 1.61
BTEC Business (Diploma)	Applied General	-0.05	1.5	-0.05 x 1.5 = -0.075
Extended Project	Academic	0.48	0.3	0.48 x 0.3 = 0.144
Geography A2	A Level	1.29	1	1.29 x 1 = 1.29
History A2	A Level	0.32	1	0.32 x 1 = 0.32
		Total	4.8	3.289

Student	Value Added Score
Student 1	0.32
Student 2	-0.61
...	...
Student 10	1.35
Total (sum of all value added scores)	0.62 (2 dp)

\({\sigma^2}\)	National Variance of Error.
\({n}\)	Number of Grades

Value Added Score	0.06
National Variance of Error	0.918551814386108
Number of Grades for the qualification	11 (in this example, for History)

GCSE APS	6.23
Overall APS	6.1257

Sisra Analytics: KS5 - How is L3 Value Added (VA) calculated?

Overview

Calculations (including examples)

A Level Cohort

Academic Cohort

Related information

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